Explaining Title's Contenders behaviour by Game Theory

Legend :
C = Chelsea, L = Liverpool, MU = ManU
W = Win, L = Lose, D = Draw
Note : I am sorry for the confusion of notation (L for Liverpool and L for Lose)

This Sunday night, there will be another big match of EPL (English Premier League) between Chelsea and Liverpool. Both of them are behind Manchester United by 3 points (with the same number of games). Manchester United has a match against Everton on Sunday morning (HK Time).

Just for your information, the current standing of the league (as of Jan 31, 2009) :
1st : Manchester United (50 points)
2nd : Chelsea (48 points)
3rd : Liverpool (48 points)

In this note, I will try to explain why both Chelsea and Liverpool will try to defeat one another by using game theory approach.

As you see in the figure above,
1. If ManU win the Everton match, ManU will have 53 points. Then If Chelsea win, Chelsea will be 2 points behind (-2) and Liverpool will be 5 points behind (-5). Or If Liverpool win, the position is reversed. Or If they share a point, both will be 4 points behind (-4).
2. If ManU lose the Everton match, ManU will have 50 points.Then If Chelsea win, Chelsea will be 1 point in front (+1), and Liverpoll will be 2 points behind (-2). Or If Liverpool win, the position is reversed.Or If they share a point, both will be 1 points behind (-1).
3. If ManU vs Everton ends up with a draw, ManU will have 51 points. Then If Chelsea win, Chelsea will have same points (0) and Liverpool will be 3 points behind (-3). Or If Liverpool win, the position is reversed. Or if they share a point, both will be 2 points behind (-2).

As you see in the figure above, the best strategy for Chelsea or Liverpool is always to win the game (minimizes the point loss).

If there is no collusion activities between them, each of them will play at their best to win the game.

Collusion activity is possible to be conducted between them, because if Liverpool let Chelsea win, Chelsea has a better position to challenge ManU for the title, and vice versa (if Chelsea let Liverpool win). Both of them has same amount of points currently. In this sense, both of them joins forces to steal the title from ManU (assumed their objective is any club could win the title except ManU). I mention this only for the sake of possibility. Although, I believe that this will not happen.

Game Theory Approach of explaining behavior of Liverpool and Chelsea this coming Sunday night.

What you sow is what you are going to reap

Have you ever seen a farmer in the field sowing seeds? He sows the seed with the hope of reaping something in the future. A farmer who sows a seed of corn will reap a stalk of corn. A farmer who sows a seed of rice will harvest rice. This story is analogous to our life to some extent.

An athlete who trains very diligently has a higher chance of being an Olympic champion.
A student who studied well has a higher chance of getting a good grade.
A worker who works hard (and/ smart) has a higher chance of getting higher income.
Parents who teach truths of life to their children will have a higher chance to see their children successful in life.
And so on...

The rule is also applied to the other side of the story.
An athlete who does not train himself diligently has a lower chance of being an Olympic champion.
A student who did not studied well has a lower chance of getting a good grade.
A worker who does not work hard (and/ smart) has a lower chance of getting higher income.
Parents who does not teach truths of life to their children will have a lower chance to see their children successful in life.
And so on...

Probably it is oversimplified. Most of the time, there are many other factors that affect the outcomes. But this oversimplified truth seems to hold in our life to some extent.

You will reap what you have sown. Knowing this simple truth :
From today, start sowing what you want to reap tomorrow.

God bless you.

It happens as I predicted

Dear EPL (English Premier League) Fans,

I have mentioned a couple of weeks ago that Liverpool will start going down in the league ranking soon.

The time when I mentioned this, Liverpool was in the top of the table. But 2 days ago, Man U secures the top spot, while Liverpool went down to 2nd place. And this morning, Chelsea leapfrogged Liverpool to claim the 2nd place. I personally has pretty strong confidence that Liverpool will not do much for the rest of the season. Liverpool is famous for its inconsistency. History told you so. Liverpool could only win the league only if there are only 19 matches in a season ( or half-season in current situation). Liverpool was always only good either in the first half of the season or in the second half of the season, they could not maintain the performance for the whole season. The problem is that it is a full season.

I try to make a statement as objective as possible, and I still put my confidence in Manchester United. They are the only team in EPL which has the highest chance of winning the league. How about Chelsea? Well, they will only becoming a good contender alongside with Liverpool, but they will never lift up the trophy by the end of the season.

Glory - Glory - Man United....

Profit Maximizing Behaviour

Happy Chinese New Year. Welcome the year of the Ox. A Feng-Shui Master said that the Ox this year represents a endurance amid the financial turmoil, as the hard working Ox which never complains being asked to drag the soil cultivator machine. Hope the financial crisis ends soon. Some economists said that we might see the turning point of the crisis by mid-2009.

Anyway, that is not what I want to talk about. Here in Hong Kong, Chinese New Year is a public holiday and it is a 3-day off starting from yesterday. During the Chinese New Year, many economics units (shops, restaurants, firms) are usually not producing services.

I would to talk about restaurants in HK during this festive seasons. As many of the restaurants are closed, supply of eating placed falls (while demand remains relatively constant in some areas). The fall of supply is seen by the restaurant's owners as an opportunity to raise profit (converting consumer surplus into its of producer, in economic terms). Just now, I had my dinner in the restaurant I used to go. For these 3 days, they will charge customers of 10% VAT (they never do it on non-festive seasons). It was funny. I do not think that the tax will be paid to the government though. Hahaha. What an opportunist.

Profit Maximizing Behaviour. In Economics, Economics Unit are assumed as profit maximizing unit as well as minimizing cost.

Economics is just around you.

Prayer Circles

Prayer Circles

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READ: Luke 18:9-14

Everyone who exalts himself will be humbled. —Luke 18:14

Around the circle the 6th-grade girls went, taking turns praying for each other in the Bible-study group. “Father in heaven,” Anna prayed, “please help Tonya not to be so boy-crazy.” Tonya added with a giggle, “And help Anna to stop acting so horrible in school and bothering other kids.” Then Talia prayed, “Lord, help Tonya to listen to her mother instead of always talking back.”

Although the requests were real, the girls seemed to enjoy teasing their friends by pointing out their flaws in front of the others instead of caring about their need for God’s help. Their group leader reminded them about the seriousness of talking to almighty God and the importance of evaluating their own hearts.

If we use prayer to point out the faults of others while ignoring our own, we’re like the Pharisee in Jesus’ parable. He prayed, “God, I thank You that I am not like other men—extortioners, unjust, adulterers, or even as this tax collector” (Luke 18:11). Instead, we’re to be like the man who asked God to be merciful to him, “a sinner” (v.13).

Let’s be careful not to let our prayers become a listing of others’ flaws. The kind of prayer God desires flows out of a humble evaluation of our own sinful hearts. —Anne Cetas

Lord, teach us how to pray aright,
Oh, lead us in Your way;
Humbly we bow in Your pure light;
Lord, teach us how to pray. —Anon.

The highest form of prayer comes from the depths of a humble heart.

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Copyright 2009, RBC Ministries, Grand Rapids, MI 49555 USA. Written permission must be obtained from RBC Ministries for any further posting or distribution. RBC Ministries produces a variety of Bible resources, which are available for the asking. RBC Ministries is not funded by any group or denomination, and support comes voluntarily from its members and friends. Write rbc@rbc.org for more information.

Scripture taken from the New King James Version. Copyright © 1982 by Thomas Nelson, Inc. Used by permission. All rights reserved.

Joke of Backward-bending Labor Supply Curve

The joke is taken from The Standard (Thur, Jan 22, 2009).

[Start]
Title : Eight stages in my circle of life and we're all players

William Shakespeare said a person goes through 'seven ages of life'. The immortal bard was close, but I'll go one better with my eight stages of modern life.

Stage one : The Intern
Arrives late. Explains that he got lost. Told to make coffee. Makes undrinkable black gunge. Sits in on meetings at which he realizes - with horror - that he knows nothing about anything being discussed. Spends most of the day feeling useless. Asks inane questions such as, 'Please, sir, do we have to ask before we go to the toilet?'. At midday, eats packed lunch from home.

Stage two : The Short-Contract Worker
Arrives early. Waits outside until a staff member arrives with a key. Devotes all his energy to volunteering for assignments because he is desperate to get hired full-time.
At lunch, he eats sandwiches at his desk while doing everyone else's work. He leaves the office last, at 9 pm, but still arrives the next morning before the rest of us.

Stage three : The New Hire
Arrives slightly before other staff. First to take his seat at meetings. Talks constantly about 'our vision'. Starry eyed and enthuasiastic. Does much of the work that gets done, although he is constantly interrupted by older staff wandering into his room to sit on his desk and spout rubbish. Leaves at 8 pm.

Stage four : The Experienced Executive
Arrives at exactly 9 am, not a minute early or late. Has a lot of work to do, but spends most of his time transferring it to other people. Occasionally buys lunch at the wine bar for people at stages one, two and three, because he enjoys the way they worship him. Leaves at 7 pm.

Stage five : The Senior Manager
Strolls into the office at 9.40 am. Cannot avoid work completely, but does the bare minimum. Lunches at private club, practising his 'vice president' look of worldliness and ennui, so as to be ready for the next stage. Sneaks out of the office on the dot of 6 pm.

Stage six : Vice President
Languidly ambles into the office around 11 am. Finds work a total bore, so he gets people at stages one, two, three and four to do all of his work for him. Spends most of the day sitting on the desks of the new hires to give them the benefits of his wisdom. Leaves the office at 5 pm, pretending to be on the way to a client meeting.

Stage seven : Chief Executive Officer
Comes into the office at noon, and then goes straight out again for a long lunch at his club, which takes him until 3 pm. No longer even pretends to do any work. Leaves at 4 pm for a quick round of golf.

Stage eight : Chairman
Arrives late. Explains that he got lost because his memory is not what it was. Serves coffee from private percolator. Turns out to be undrinkable black gunge. Sits in on meetings at which he realizes - with horror - that he no longer knows anything about what is being discussed. Spends most of the day feeling terrifyingly useless. Asks inane questions all the time, such as, 'Shall we open some overseas offices, or have we already done that sort of thing?' Before leaving at 3 pm, he eats packed lunch from home, because he can't eat anything without bran.

It's the circle of life.
[End]

Remember the law of backward-bending Labor Supply Curve? This jokes is exactly relating to the law.

In the law of backward-bending Labor Supply Curve, it is assumed that when the wage level is relatively low, worker will supply his labor at low level. As the wage level is increasing, the level of labor supplied will increase as well. And it will reach a point (=wage level) where the level of labor supplied will fall as the wage increases further.

From point 0 to turning point, Substitution Effect is dominating Income Effect. From turning point onwards, Income Effect is dominating Substitution Effect. In a contemporary languange, the last two sentences says :

When income is low, you will work more as income increases. But when your income is high enough, you will supply less amount of labor as you prefer to use your time for leisure activities.

Economics is interesting right? [Economics offers you view of how the world works].

I do not want to leave academics world

University is like my lover. I am happy to go to the Library. I am happy to read textbooks. I am happy to read journals. I am happy to attend Lectures. I am happy to do assignments. I am happy to sit in courses I am not registered for just for the sake of knowledge. I am happy to discuss academic issues. I am happy attending research seminars, although I do not understand completely what they said. It is just a sense of complete happiness entering academics environment. I feel that my soul and my excitement are there.

The more I learn, the more I feel that I know so little. The more I realize that there are finitely infinite things out there. It also makes me realized how weak human is. But still, many of us feel as the smartest person on earth.

Whenever I am thinking of the possibility that this semester will be my last semester in University for lifetime, I am worried, I feel sad. There is a feeling that I do not want to leave academics environment. Is living as an academics my path of life? Is it the plan God has for my life?

Deep inside my heart, I really would like to continue my PhD study in Economics. Day by day, Economics is expanding its territory within my life. Economics, Mathematics, and Statistics are always wandering in my mind on most of my days. I hope I do well in my Master's study. I hope that I could build a very good research proposal. I hope that I get a good GRE result. I hope that I get a PhD admission somewhere in this world. I know efforts are needed. I will do what (the right one) I can do to pursue this dream. If it is His will, everything will go smoothly. Nothing in the world is big enough to stop His will.

Ok, now focus on your last semester of Master's degree. Do well. Then prepare your research proposal. Prepare for GRE and take the test. Do not forget to pray. Ask wisdom and guidance from God. I believe in an old saying, If there is a will, there is a way.

God, please show me the way. Please tell me who I am and why I am on earth. Let me live according to Your will only.