Friday, February 27, 2009

Discipleship: Renewing Your Mind

Discipleship: Renewing Your Mind
by Rick Warren

Be careful how you think; your life is shaped by your thoughts. Proverbs 4:23 (TEV)

*** *** *** ***

To change your life, you must change the way you think. Behind everything you do is a thought. Every behavior is motivated by a belief, and every action is prompted by an attitude.

God revealed this thousands of years before psychologists understood it: "Be careful how you think; your life is shaped by your thoughts" (Proverbs 4:23 TEV).

Imagine riding in a speedboat on a lake with an automatic pilot set to go east. If you decide to reverse course and head west, you have two possible ways to change the boat's direction.

One way is to grab the steering wheel and physically force it to head in the opposite direction from where the autopilot is programmed to go. By sheer willpower, you could overcome the autopilot, but you'd feel constant resistance. Your arms would eventually tire of the stress, you'd let go of the steering wheel, and the boat would instantly head back east, the way it was internally programmed.

This is what happens when you try to change you life with willpower; you say, "I'll force myself to eat less ... stop smoking ... quit being disorganized and late."

And, yes, willpower can produce short-term change, but it creates constant internal stress because you haven't dealt with the root cause. The change doesn't feel natural. Eventually you give up and go off the diet.

There is a better and easier way: Change your autopilot; in other words, the way you think. "Let God transform you into a new person by changing the way you think" (Romans 12:2 NLT).

Change always starts first in the mind. The way you think determines the way you feel, and the way you feel influences the way you act, which means "there must be a spiritual renewal of your thoughts and attitudes" (Ephesians 4:23 NLT).

To be like Christ you must develop the mind of Christ. The New Testament calls this mental shift "repentance," which in Greek literally means "to change your mind."

To repent means to change the way you think - about God, yourself, sin, other people, life, your future, and everything else, and you adopt Christ's outlook and perspective on life.

© 2008 Purpose Driven Life. All rights reserved.

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Spend to stimulate the economy...


Famous Keynesian Diagram (aka. Keynesian Cross)


Global recession is already been a public secret for the last one year. US was in recession on the late of 2007 (following their own housing crisis), based on commonly-accepted definition of recession among economists (i.e. decline in GDP for two consecutive quarters of one fiscal year). And everyone in the world is experiencing the wave until indefinite time. During recessions, the following happens :
1. GDP falls
2. Consumption falls
3. Frozen credit market
4. Investment falls
5. Unemployment rises
6. Price deflation (in latter part, due to fall in demand). Note : price might rises as well, depends on the policies implemented
7. In the very latter part, if recession is left unsolved for a period of time, non-primary industries will start to disappear. No iPod, No Ermenegildo Zegna, No Calvin Klein, No Windows, No Lamborghini, and the lists go on. Basically the non-primary industries will disappear starting from the most non-essential items, and moving to the closest to the essential items. Why these industries dissappear? No one buys. Why does no one buy? No money, no longer important. So, could companies survive if no ones buy its own products? No. But, I doubt it will happen. It might happen though.
8. So on...

So, how could we solve this problem? Government and Us have roles. Government plays a very big role in getting out of recession. Government has two weapons (fiscal and monetary policy). These two policies might help a country to get out of recession. Fiscal policy is basically policy related to tax and to government spending. Monetary policy is basically policy related to money supply. When government cuts tax, building infrastructures, those are fiscal policies. When central bank cuts interest rates, prints money, those are monetary policies.

But do not forget, we have our part as well. If we are not on the same page with the government, the policies will not give any impact the economy. When government reduces tax rate (with the hope you will spend more), but you do not increase your spending, the policy becomes ineffective. When government reduces interest rate, but you do not borrow more money and invest it somewhere in the economy, the policy becomes ineffective.

Spending is one of the key of getting out of this current recession.Government and Central Banks have done much what they can do to stimulate the economy. Central banks have cut interest rate to the lowest level in the years of history. Governments are proposing infrastructure projects. Government reduces taxes. If we, the citizens, are taking the signal wrongly, the economy will not go any better. We have our part. I understand that it will take times. Consumers confidence must be in better shape before it could happens.

Keynesian approach of solving economic depression.



Sunday, February 22, 2009

Lustful men, proud women

Lustful men, proud women

VATICAN CITY: Lust leads men to sin. For women, pride is their biggest downfall.

This, according to a new Vatican report, is how the sexes struggle differently with the seven deadly sins of pride, envy, gluttony, lust, anger, greed and sloth.

The report was based on a study of confessions carried out by a 96-year-old Jesuit scholar, British media reported.

Pope Benedict XVI's personal theologian has backed the report. Monsignor Wojciech Giertych said there was 'no sexual equality' when it came to sin.

'Men and women sin in different ways,' he wrote in L'Osservatore Romano, the Vatican newspaper.

Pride ranks only at No. 5 for men, who are likely to have indulged in so much lust and gluttony that they are too slothful to feel angry, proud, envious or avaricious, the Times of London said.

Women are not averse to lust, but are primarily occupied with pride, envy and anger. Sloth does not set in until after gluttony and avarice, the British newspaper added.

'When you look at vices from the point of view of the difficulties they create, you find that men experiment in a different way from women,' Monsignor Giertych said.

His own observations had confirmed the survey, an analysis of confessional data carried out by Father Roberto Busa, 96, a Jesuit priest celebrated for his computerised study of the works of St Thomas Aquinas.

He said: 'Diverse cultural contexts generate diverse habits - but human nature remains the same.'

Monsignor Giertych said that human weaknesses could 'purify faith' provided that they were 'admitted and offered up to God'.

The Roman Catholic Church teaches that the seven deadly sins, which carry the threat of eternal damnation, can only be forgiven by confession and penance, the Daily Mail said.

However, 30 per cent of Catholics no longer considered confession to a priest necessary, and 10 per cent even said that it 'impeded their personal dialogue with God', the Times report said.

Many believers accept the broad seven deadly sins or 'capital vices' laid down in the 6th century by Pope Gregory the Great and popularised in the Middle Ages by Aquinas, and by Dante in The Inferno. These are:

Lust: Excessive thoughts or desires of a sexual nature.

Gluttony: Over-consumption of or overly indulging in anything to the point of waste.

Sloth: The failure to utilise one's talents and gifts.

Anger: Inordinate and uncontrolled feelings that can manifest as vehement denial of the truth or self-denial, or generally wishing to do evil or harm to others.

Pride: The desire to be more important or attractive than others, failing to compliment others and excessive love of self.

Envy: Resentment of another person for having something one lacks, and wishing the other person to be deprived of it.

Greed: Excessive acquisition of material goods.

Last year, the Vatican added seven new ones: genetic modification; human experimentation; polluting the environment; social injustice; causing poverty; 'financial gluttony'; and taking or selling drugs.

Bishop Gianfranco Girotti, head of the Apostolic Penitentiary, the Vatican body that oversees confessions, said that two mortal sins which continued to preoccupy the Vatican were abortion and paedophilia.

The latter had even infected the clergy itself, and so had exposed the 'human and institutional fragility of the Church'.

Pope Benedict, who reportedly confesses his sins once a week, last year issued his own voice of disquiet on the subject.

'We are losing the notion of sin,' he said. 'If people do not confess regularly, they risk slowing their spiritual rhythm.'

This article was first published in The Straits Times.

Friday, February 20, 2009

Kejanggalan di kompas.com

Ada satu kejanggalan yang saya amati dari website salah satu surat kabar populer di Indonesia, kompas.com. Berkunjung ke kompas.com adalah salah satu kegiatan harian yang saya lakukan demi mengikuti perkembangan yang terjadi di tanah air.

Hari ini, di kompas.com, ada berita berjudul 'Diduga memeras, 4 wartawan ditangkap polisi'. Tempat kejadian adalah Jember. Tapi yang anehnya, gambar yang dipakai untuk melengkapi artikel adalah 2 tangan yang saling bertukar uang dollar AS. Aneh dalam 2 hal :
1. Pemerasan kok digambarkan hanya dengan perpindahan tangan yang terlalu general. Bisa diartikan apa saja (orang jual beli di pasar, bayar ongkos taksi, dll). Harusnya ditambahi atribut pistol atau pisau atau clurit atau semacamnya, baru lebih jelas ke arah pemerasan.
2. Yang dipakai di gambarnya adalah dollar AS. Kejadian di Jember kok pake dollar AS (walaupun bisa saja terjadi). Tapi kan ya kemungkinannya kecil, orang bawa dollar AS di jalanan kota Jember.

Hal 1 masih bisa diterima, namun hal 2 ini yang saya kurang bisa memahami. Kok ngga pake gambar uang rupiah, tapi malah pake dollar AS. Kejadian di Indonesia, lebih logis dan lebih pas kalau gambar pelengkap pake mata uang rupiah.

Sejauh pengamatan saya, ini bukan pertama kalinya dilakukan oleh kompas.com. Beberapa kali, dalam berita ekonomi dalam negeri, gambar yang melengkapi artikel pake mata uang asing, bukan rupiah. Cukup aneh bukan? Kalau topiknya lagi luar negeri, masih bolehlah gambar pake mata uang asing. Tapi kalau topiknya dalam negeri, ya mbok pake uang rupiah gambarnya. Selain lebih relevan dengan topik berita, juga menunjukkan bahwa kita bangga akan mata uang kita sendiri (Rupiah).

Kejanggalan yang tidak sengaja teramati.

Thursday, February 19, 2009

When the Future Seems Uncertain

When the Future Seems Uncertain
by Rick Warren

“For I know the plans I have for you,” says the Lord. “They are plans … to give you a future and a hope … You will find me when you seek me, if you look for me in earnest.” Jeremiah 29:11, 13 (LB)

*** *** *** ***

No matter what the pollsters, pundits, and prognosticators claim, no one can accurately predict all that is going to happen in the next year, let alone the next few days or weeks. Our best forecasts are just educated guesses.

Change is not only increasing in speed and intensity, but also in unpredictability. How can anyone succeed when the future is so uncertain?

The Bible suggests three timeless principles for facing an uncertain future:

1. Set goals according to God’s direction. It’s foolish to make plans without first consulting God. He’s the only one who does know the future – and he’s eager to guide you through it.

The Bible says, “We may make our plans, but God has the last word” (Proverbs 16:1 GNT). In other words, planning without praying is presumption. Start by praying, “God, what do you want me to do in 2009?”

2. Live one day at a time. While you can plan for tomorrow, you can’t live it until it arrives. Most people spend so much time regretting the past and worrying about the future, they have no time to enjoy today!

John Lennon once wrote, “Life is what happens to you while you’re busy making other plans.” Decide to make the most of each moment this year. Jesus said, “Don’t be anxious about tomorrow. God will take care of your tomorrow too. Live one day at a time” (Matthew 6:34 LB).

3. Don’t procrastinate. Do it now! “Don’t boast about what you’re going to do tomorrow, for you don’t know what a day may bring forth” (Proverbs 27:1).

Procrastinating is a subtle trap. It wastes today by postponing things until tomorrow. You promise yourself that you’ll do it “one of these days.” But “one of these days” is usually “none of these days.”

What did you plan to get done last year that you didn’t do? When do you intend to start working on it?

© 2008 Purpose Driven Life. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Fewer places for foreign talents...

As we all know, the financial crisis is still ongoing. It is a difficult situation for almost every country in this planet earth. Firms were losing money. Demand is declining. Export is declining. Unemployment rate is rising. Social unrest is appearing. Almost all bad economics events you could ever imagine is happening these days. But do not worry, it will not be as bad as 1929. The structures of the market are fundamentally stronger. The machine is better now. We just need countries who could lead by example and raising the market confidence from the dead. Once the confidence is back, the machine will start working normally. But bear in mind, it takes time (by beginning of 2010?). There is no instantaneous thing in this world, even instant noodles is not instantaneous.

Ok, now go to the topic. Yesterday, news said that HK government will create a subsidy scheme for companies which employs local graduates. It was said that for every worker employed, the firm will receive HKD 2,000 per month. This policy is to keep unemployment rate controllable. By May, there will be many students graduating from universities. And these young and fresh talents need job. At the current moment, these local talents are somehow having open competition with foreign talents. Having a competition in normal/harvest time is fine. But not in the dry season. Yes, the current season is dry for employment. The outlook is very gloom. Many firms are postponing the recruitment until the sky looks brighter. University Spokesman even urged graduates to lower their salary expectations by 20%.

This policy is implemented to protect HK citizens, which is the right thing to be done by the government. And it means fewer places for foreign talents...

Another story of economic crises...

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Surrender: Let Go and Let God Work

Surrender: Let Go and Let God Work
by Rick Warren

Surrender yourself to the Lord, and wait patiently for him. Psalm 37:7 (GWT)

*** *** *** ***

Surrendering your life means:

· Following God’s lead without knowing where he’s sending you;

· Waiting for God’s timing without knowing when it will come;

· Expecting a miracle without knowing how God will provide;

· Trusting God’s purpose without understanding the circumstances.

You know you’re surrendered to God when you rely on God to work things out instead of trying to manipulate others, force your agenda, and control the situation. You let go and let God work.You don’t have to always be in charge. Instead of trying harder, you trust more.

You also know you’re surrendered when you don’t react to criticism and rush to defend yourself.

Surrendered hearts show up best in relationships. You are not self-serving, you don’t edge others out, and you don’t demand your rights.

The most difficultthing for many people to surrender is their money. Many have thought, “I want to live for God but I also want to earn enough money to live comfortably and retire someday.”

Retirement is not the goal of a surrender life, because it competes with God for the primary attention of our lives. Jesus said, “You cannot serve both God and money,” (Matthew 6:24 NIV)and “Wherever your treasure is, your heart will be also” (Matthew 6:21 NIV).

The supreme example of self-surrender is Jesus. The night before his crucifixion Jesus surrendered himself to God’s plan. He prayed, “Father, everything is possible for you. Please take this cup of suffering away from me. Yet I want your will, not mine” (Mark 14:36 NLT).

Jesus didn’t pray, “God, if you’re able to take away this pain, please do so.” He began by affirming that God can do anything! He prayed, “God, if it is in your best interest to remove this suffering, please do so. But if it fulfills your purpose, that’s what I want, too.”

Genuine surrender says, “Father, if this problem, pain, sickness, or circumstance is needed to fulfill your purpose and glory in my life or in another’s life, please don’t take it away!”

This level of maturity doesn’t come easy.In Jesus’ case, he agonized so much over God’s plan that he sweat drops of blood. Surrender is hard work. In our case, it requires intense warfare against our self-centered nature.

© 2008 Purpose Driven Life. All rights reserved.

Monday, February 16, 2009

Worship: The Barrier of Pride

Worship: The Barrier of Pride
by Rick Warren

It is not that we think we are qualified to do anything on our own. Our qualification comes from God. 2 Corinthians 3:5 (NLT)

*** *** *** ***

Life is a struggle, but what most people don’t realize is that our struggle, like Jacob’s in Genesis 32:22-32, is really with God! We want to be God, and there’s no way we’re going to win that struggle, but we try anyway.

A.W. Tozer said, “The reason why many are still troubled, still seeking, still making little forward progress is because they haven’t yet come to the end of themselves. We’re still trying to give orders, and interfering with God’s work within us.”

We aren’t God, and we never will be. We’re humans, and the times when we try to be God are the times we end up most like Satan, who tried to be equal with God, too.

We accept our humanity intellectually, but not emotionally. We give mental assent to the idea, but when faced with our own limitations, we react with irritation, anger, and resentment. We want to be taller (or shorter), smarter, stronger, more talented, beautiful, and wealthy.

We want to have it all and do it all, and become upset when it doesn’t happen. Then, when we notice God gave others characteristics we don’t have, we respond with envy, jealousy, and self-pity.

What it means to surrender. Surrendering to God is not passive resignation, fatalism, or an excuse for laziness. It is not accepting the status quo. It may mean the exact opposite: sacrificing your life in resistance to evil and injustice, or suffering in order to change what needs to be changed. God often calls surrendered people to do battle on his behalf. It’s not for cowards or doormats.

Surrendering is not putting your brain in neutral and giving up rational thinking. God would not waste the mind he gave you! God does not want robots to serve him. Surrendering is not repressing your personality. God wants to use your unique personality. Rather than being diminished, surrendering enhances your uniqueness.

C. S. Lewis observed, “The more we let God take us over, the more truly ourselves we become – because he made us.He invented all the different people that you and I were intended to be. It is when I turn to Christ, when I give up myself to His personality, that I first begin to have a real personality of my own.”

© 2008 Purpose Driven Life. All rights reserved.

Thursday, February 12, 2009

3D Theater - intelligence or weakness?

1 month ago, I went to Disneyland Hong Kong. There are many attractions inside of it. But there is this one attraction that makes me reflect on myself. This attraction is 3D-Theater. Before you went inside the building, the theme park staffs distributed a 3D-glasses (of course, it is 3D). =)

Then, I took a sit on the chair, and waiting for the show to begin. After 3 minutes, the speaker 'speaks' 'Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to... Please wear the 3D-glasses...'. And the show has just begun. It started with Donald Duck who try to conduct an orchestra and everything messed up in the end (hahaha).

Anyway, it was a good show. But there is this particular thing which I want to share. By using that 3D glasses, you can feel as if the pictures are real. The 2D characters are transformed into 3D characters. Wow, humans are smart, they could do it? Adding a tool, the world is changed. But wait a second...

Probably we are not that smart. Indeed, we are on the opposite side. Probably, we are too weak or too incapable as our eyes could be easily tricked by a pair of glasses. The fact is it looks 3D just due to the glasses. The truth was it is only 2D. We are simply tricked by a pair of glasses, and we say that 'we are smart'.

A lesson from 3D Theater. Are we indeed smart? Or Are we indeed weak and easily manipulated?

God bless you, readers.

More is Less - What a strange world...

For the last 6 months, I have been reading 45 books (textbooks, lecture notes, economics and finance related books). I must say that at least 70% of the books which I have read was not required readings for the course in 1st semester. It was really only for the sake of my interest.

Whenever I enter library, I am always dragged by unseen force to the computer and start searching for books. And when I found good books (most books are good to me actually), I am always tempted to take it, and to borrow it. Afterward, I will read the entire book within 3 - 4 days straight.

After practicing this new habit for sometimes, I started to realize what some wise people means when they said 'The world is strange. The more you learn, The more you realize that you do not know anything'.

This kind of feeling came to me 2 weeks ago. The more number of books I read, I realize that there are so many things that I do not know yet. I guess this is also a sign of the Greatness of God. This particular thing makes people realize that they are very 'small' and 'weak'. Hence, every human beings will understand that they need to rely on God alone.

God bless you, readers.

Thursday, February 5, 2009

Keep your promise! Act responsibly! (Lesson from Financial Crises)

Promise is about commitment. Financial Services are collection of promises. When you save your money in the bank, the bank promises that they will give you interest and will make the funds available whenever you need it. When you borrow money, you give your house/car/anything as collateral and you promise that you will pay back the loan sometimes in the future. When you buy stocks, the company promises to pay dividend (if any) to you, promise to give you company ownership. When you buy options, you buy a right (not obligation) to buy or to sell particular stocks in the future at a specified price (again it is a promise). When you buy an insurance coverage, you pay a certain amount of premium and the insurance company promise to provide certain amount of funds if something bad happen (fire accident, death, sickness, etc). And so on. Financial service is simply a promise.

When a promise is not honored, what is the value of the promise? Promise is valuable only when it is honored.

Basically, one of the roots of current financial problem is the lack of commitment to honor the promises. It was believed that the current financial crises was triggered by US house subprime mortgage back in 2007. Subprimers are borrowers with low credit ratings (hence higher level of risk is involved). Banks started to lend money to this class of borrowers, which then the fund was used to buy houses, cars, etc. Seeing the rising in house prices, free money are just out there. When you perceive that house prices will keep rising, you just feel that you become richer and richer by having more and more houses. Hence, demand for loan for house purchasing keep increasing. Banks were more than happy to lend money to them. They also believed that the collateral they hold was rising in value, besides the higher agreed interest rate. Hence, they did not worry about it. Until one day, when suddenly the price of the house start falling (bubble = demand is not supported by actual demand), the bubble burst. Excess supply takes the price down. Housing prices are falling, borrowers could not pay back the loan, declined in value houses are taken over by banks, banks start to have problem with their cashflows. A lot of banking products are insured. Insurance companies also have another financial services. Basically it was like domino effect. A promises to pay B, B promises to pay C, and so on. When A did not fulfill the promise, B could not fulfill the promise too, and so on. The current financial crises is systemic and highly epidemic.That was why government intervention is needed. Imagining Racoon City which was contaminated with T-Virus (in Resident Evil) and everyone is becoming a walking dead in the street, there must be someone who must come and stop the spread (Leon and Clara). Government is acting like Leon & Clara this time. It tried to come and inject cures (funds, bail-outs) to the walking dead banks. Just imagine if Leon and Clara did not come to the Racoon City, the virus will spread uncontrolled. There will be more walking deads (=sick financial institutions). Total destruction will be unavoidable. As you see, financial markets have played a major role and become too important for this era. Just imagine if more and more financial institutions collapsed, unemployment level will increase significantly, less credit available in the market (which leads to less investment), and lead to less growth, and the worst might come (global poverty). People were complaining why government used their money to help irresponsible banks. But if the government did not help them at the moment, the worse situation might prevail. Now another issue, why this sense of irresponsibility arises in this complicated and sophisticated market? It was the fruit of becoming too sophisticated. These days, it seems that people believe that when the risks are spread evenly, it is good and everything will be just fine. This might be true. Diversify!!! Diversify!!! That is what all investors said (if they really understand it). Do not put all your eggs in a basket. But now, there is another problem arises with it. Financial Players lost the sense of responsibility. They merely believed that 'it is well diversified, then it is fine', why should I take more responsibility of it? People became reckless. Financiers only cares about their commissions. Loans are approved easily, they feel happy (without considering the risks behind it - again it was diversified right?).

It was also due to greediness. People are greedy of materials. They do something out of their capabilities. They buy more houses than they actually need by borrowing money. And so on.

The current problem is a problem for all of us. Maybe some of you might not feel it. But considers few things below :
1. Government used your money to help institutions instead of improving public services.
2. Less money available for higher return investment.
3. Some governments devalue their currency or let it depreciate to boost export (which also implies that it will cost you more if you stay overseas).
4. Less employment opportunities.
5. Salary Cut = Lower spending power.
6. Increased in mental health problems (which lead to suicides).
7. All of those points above might reduces your level of happiness.
8. People becomes more self-centered (homo politicus).
9. Many individual dreams (starting a venture, going to school, buy a car) are halted, probably even shattered.
10. Etc...

A reason to keep your promise! Act responsibly!

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Disney's (HK) admission ticket increases by 20pc for tourists

Today, a local newspaper said that Disneyland (HK) will increase ticket prices by 20pc for tourists (Mainland China & Other Countries) and it will effectively start on next Monday. At the moment, prices will remain the same for HK residents, but it will increase as well within 6 months. There will be 15pc reduction for senior citizens (65 years old and above) though.

There are several issues here :
1. In economics, generally when a price of a good rises, demand of it will fall. If we assume that tendency occurs in Disneyland's case, we might make a rough estimates of this year expected ticket sales. To maintain the same total revenue (let it be 1) with 20pc increase in price (let it be 1.2), we will have visitor rate of 0.83 (=17% fall in ticket sales) of 2008. This simple calculation is based on simplified assumption. If the assumption holds, Disney probably expects that there will be 17% (at most) decrease (recession? other causes?) in number of visitors in 2009 compared to its of 2008, so 20pc price increase is imposed. Of course, if the number of visitors fall less than 17% or if there is an increase in number of visitors, Disney will make higher total revenue (which is good for them). Other factors (such as inflation, wage level, etc) are ignored because its significance is regarded as relatively small.

2. 15pc ticket reduction for senior citizens is simply insignificance for Disneyland. Most of the visitors of Disneyland are below 65 years old. Disneyland is a fun place for kids and adults, but probably not for senior citizens. Hence, this 15pc ticket price reduction for senior citizens is only a way to make a 'emotional compensation' for 20pc increase in general ticket price.

3. Demand for entertainment (especially for tourists) will not fall as directly as other goods with respect to price. People are not going vacations (abroad) everyday. Most ordinary people only do it once a year, or probably twice. Raising price tickets will not have a big impact for number of foreign visitors. Tourism industry is relatively stable. They do not really fluctuate with acceptable economic situation.

If 3 & 2 hold, then in the end, Disneyland will grasp extra revenue (probably extra profit).

Cost and Benefit Analysis.